Life and masks

Brave

That’s very good news if true. There is a theory that most viruses (in a pandemic situation) will tend towards this sort of thing in the end.

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/how-viruses-evolve-180975343/

“I believe that viruses tend to become less pathogenic,” says Burtram Fielding, a coronavirologist at the University of the Western Cape, South Africa. “The ultimate aim of a pathogen is to reproduce, to make more of itself. Any pathogen that kills the host too fast will not give itself enough time to reproduce.”

I’ve seen quite a few virologists put forward the same theory. It’s one of the few things that’s given me a drop of hope over the past couple of years.

Jonbwfc

Brave The logic is pretty simple - the basic evolutionary requirement is to reproduce, and you select for immunity evasion rather than lethality, you can then infect a host over and over again and reproduce more often.

And that is consistent with how a lot of stuff we observe happening in evolution over long periods of time. So it does seem to fit the model.

There are, however, two issues with the theory, particularly as it applies to COVID-19.

Firstly if it were that simple, ALL infections would evolve to become less lethal but more immune evasive over time and we haven’t seen that. There are viruses that have been around for thousands of years that have never evolved to the point of being completely non-lethal. Cholera or similar is just as likely to kill you now if you get it as it as when the Pharaohs rules Egypt, assuming you don’t get treated. So it’s obviously not a ‘blanket’ rule.

Secondly, evolution is not a ‘smart’ process. There’s no.. guiding intelligence. There are plenty of forms of life we see in the fossil record that have, essentially, ended up as evolutionary cul de sacs because the adaptions to pressure that happened didn’t work out, or the situation they were adapting to changed while they were at it. The general drift of evolution is kind of obvious, but the path things take along it is… wiggly.

Basically, evolution is random in the short term (as in centuries) so we can’t rely on it to help us, but CV is patently very fast evolving so that effectively gives us more rolls of the dice to get a variant that may out compete all the others while being less damaging to the host.

To be honest, it’s interesting, but it’s mitigation measures, vaccines and successful treatments like Ronapreve that will get us past this, not evolution doing us a favour.

Brave

Oh I get all that. But you know. Hope, wherever you can get it 😉

Gammerz

Why have we skipped several letters of the greek alphabet to get to the 15th: Omicron

MadAndy

Sorry, but I can’t take the name omnicron serious. The name is just disturbed - every time I see or hear it I instantly think of the 1980s animated Transformers movie.

It really is quite vexing 😇

Gammerz

MadAndy I think all the Greek alphabet names sound ominous, like something from a sci-fi film or game, especially “Omega virus”.

It’s also strange how the meteorological scientific community don’t mind giving people’s names to storms, even though they can kill people and can be devastating. Would prefer “Storm Alpha” to “Storm Alan”. What’s wrong with the phonetic alphabet: “Alpha, Bravo, Charlie, Delta, Echo, Foxtrot…”, which is a bit of a mixture?

Alex

Right, got my Moderna booster shot today at the Glasgow Central Mosque. Very big queues though, ended up having to stand in line for an hour.

Jogort

Alex I’ve just tried booking, nothing for a few weeks around here. No idea if I’ll be home so I’ll have to wait.

Alex

First day back in the office since March 2020. It felt a bit weird but strangely the same and it’s amazing how quickly you fall back into the groove. I feel I’m ready for a bit more of the outside world now, at least a couple of days a week. 😂

Gammerz

Alex Seems like a terrible time to return to the office with the inevitable incoming Xmas Covid peak and Omicron transmission double-whammy.

Alex

Oh well, that’s the office closed again for the foreseeable future. Imagine everything else won’t be far behind. Merry Christmas!

Jogort

Alex so that lasted what…a week?

Gammerz

Alex Plan B initiated. WFH. So, good pre-emptive move by your employers.

BritishBean

I never really went back so not much change for me. We’ve been able to go into our newly built office since August when it formally opened and I’ve been twice 😆

GassyHaggis

Booster and flu jab yesterday. Sore arm and feels like a head cold but not as bad as the last lot so that’s something.

Did forgot about it until I leaned against the doorframe. Ouchee. Some new dance moves were created.

Brave

So my daughter just heard that her “Winter Formal” dance for the 5th and 6th years has been cancelled. I’ve been torn on this for weeks, and hugely stressed about it tbh. Also tbh, I’m relieved, and not a little guilty about that either.

The school had refused to help with it which seemed to me be the absolutely least safe thing to do in that instance. Regardless, the 6th years that were organising it had done an impressive job and it looked like it was going to be a good, safe event; distancing was in place, as was mask wearing. A single spark of fun after a long period of none.

Didn’t stop me worrying about both her first big night out (something I’d been dreading for ohhh 16 years ) but also the inherent risks it brings right now. But these kids are somewhat less at risk and less risky than we are, or at least they were. And they’ve had the shittiest time.

I can’t imagine being a teenager right now. I was out and about constantly at their age. It’s such an important time, and it’s changed so rapidly for them.

I was preparing myself for a difficult conversation with her about doing the right thing if it really was going to go ahead, but in the end I wouldn’t have stopped her. She’s 16, she’s got a mind of her own; and tbh she’s had real anxiety issues going back to school this year as she was truly terrified of bringing it back to us. So she wasn’t likely to take risks and frankly, I want her to enjoy life.

Getting vaccinated was a big deal for all three of us and it really felt like she could start to experience at least a shadow of what young life should be. So omicron is a real kick in the proverbials. I’m sure it is for all of us, but we also have a generation of kids for whom everything has been on pause whilst time passes so slowly.

I’m not sure there’s anything behind this post other than a rant and a moan, about parenting being fucking hard at the best of times and doubly so right now; and about a generation of young people who I hope get to make up for lost time; and anger towards a cohort of grown ups who should know better, who make it worse for everyone because they’re a bunch of selfish c**ts.

Edit: And admiration, for a bunch of hard working self starting kids who decided it was safer for everyone and their families to just bin it all and be safe.

BritishBean

I can now book my jab, except I can’t because the website is f00ked and has been from the moment that bumbling oaf of a PM appeared in the TV.

DrDamn

BritishBean I’m booked in at my local surgery for those coming Saturday. But I got the text a few days ago pre-buffoon.

Gordon

It seems guidance for NHS workers has changed. Previously they needed to isolate if anyone they share a house with tested positive. Now they can keep going to work unless they test positive themselves. Can’t see any problems with this at all.

BritishBean

Gordon yep, my mother in law is a nurse and her daughter was positive for covid but she was told to go into work. Fortunately the daughter is now clear of covid and the mother in law is still returning negative tests so she’s avoided it and creating a situation where she’s then infected patients but I’m sure this won’t always be the case.

In other news I had my booster today. The process is a lot more, erm speedy let’s say compared to my last experience. Straight in, stab you in the arm and out in 3min flat. I guess it has to be to meet the (absolute cluster fuck of a PM’s unplanned announcement to divert away attention from his complete disregard of the covid rules) target.

Gammerz

BritishBean Didn’t you have to wait 15 mins for side effects (Pfizer)?

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